Shipments of Apple Inc’s iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max models could beat market expectations by up to 20 million units in the holiday quarter due to labor unrest at a major Chinese factory, TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said.
Kuo is the latest to mark a blow to the world’s most valuable company over pay protests and strict COVID-19 restrictions at the world’s largest iPhone factory, Foxconn’s plant in the central city of Zhengzhou.
He cut his estimate for quarterly iPhone shipments by about 20% to 70-75 million units, compared to the market consensus of 80-85 million units.
Apple shares fell more than 2%, set to add to a 6% drop this month, as concerns grow about supplies during the crucial holiday sales season.
Kuo, in a blog post on Tuesday, also predicted that the supply shortage could wipe out demand for the more popular Pro models instead of delaying sales as consumers also struggle with the weakening economy.
In contrast, other Apple analysts expect sales to pick up once production restrictions ease and more Pro models arrive.
“We note that the Pro devices sold out in early January, but we expect some of the lost revenue to come through in the March quarter,” CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino said Monday.
The restrictions come at the worst time and are the toughest since the early days of the pandemic, Zino said.
Some analysts note that the problems will continue until 2023.
“I can’t imagine 2023 being a good year for Apple’s iPhones,” said Zeno Mercer, an analyst at investment consultancy ROBO Global.
“Those who want to upgrade have, and otherwise disposable income for next-gen phones has to go down.”
